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Small pelagic fish support some of the largest fisheries globally, yet there is an ongoing debate about the magnitude of the impacts of environmental processes and fishing activities on target species. We use a nonparametric, nonlinear approach to quantify these effects on the Pacific sardine (Sardinops sagax) in the Gulf of California. We show that the effect of fishing pressure and environmental variability are comparable. Furthermore, when predicting total catches, the best models account for both drivers. By using empirical dynamic programming with average environmental conditions, we calculated optimal policies to ensure long-term sustainable fisheries. The first policy, the equilibrium maximum sustainable yield, suggests that the fishery could sustain an annual catch of ∼2.16 × 10 5 tonnes. The second policy with dynamic optimal effort, reveals that the effort from 2 to 4 years ago impacts the current maximum sustainable effort. Consecutive years of high effort require a reduction to let the stock recover. Our work highlights a new framework that embraces the complex processes that drive fisheries population dynamics yet produces simple and robust advice to ensure long-term sustainable fisheries. 

Maximum Sustainable Yield (MSY) is a common target for fisheries aiming to achieve long‐term ecological sustainability. Although achievingMSYmay ensure the long‐term sustainability of fish populations, we ask whether it will provide economic security for fishers. Here we use 16 years of daily landing records to estimate potential catches and revenues per capita if fisheries were exploited atMSYin 11 subregions across Mexico. We then compare fishers’ estimated revenues per capita against national poverty limits at the household level. Our results show that even ifMSYis reached in artisanal fisheries, the overcapacity of fleets and the dissipation of rents threatens the economic well‐being of fishers and their families, pushing revenues per capita below poverty levels. Our work demonstrates the importance of resolving the trade‐offs between achieving economic, social and environmental objectives when managing for the long‐term sustainable use of natural resources.